Oscar Predictions (Updated with Winners!)

4/26/21 Let's see how I did.

So I've never done a predictions post, mostly because I completely suck at making predictions.  But I thought I'd give it a shot this year and then update tomorrow with the winners.  So you guys can see how much I suck at making predictions.

Best Picture - I mean, Nomadland is kind of the shoe-in but I think Minari might pull off a surprise upset.

Actual winner:  Nomadland.  I have to tell you, when this was announced before Best Actor and Best Actress, I almost flipped my shit.  I was googling, trying to find out if I had fast forwarded over them or something, but no.  Just a dumbass idea by the show producers that completely backfired.

Best Director - Chloe Zhao, for sure.

Actual winner:  Chloe Zhao.  Yay, me.

Best Cinematography - I only got 3/5.  Of those three, probably Nomadland.

Actual winner:  Mank.  Understandable.  It also won the Cinematographer's Guild Award, so.

Best International Feature - 3/5.  Another Round, for sure.

Actual winner:  Another Round.  Too easy.

Best Actor - Chadwick Boseman.  Slam dunk.

Actual winner:  Anthony Hopkins.  What a fucking twist.  Everybody thought it was going to be Boseman.  

Best Actress - Could go to Frances McDormand but for my money, Andra Day.

Actual winner: Frances McDormand.

Best Supporting Actor - 3/5 and it's probably going to be Daniel Kaluuya whose performance I haven't seen yet, but he won the Golden Globe so it seems like a safe bet.  Of the three I saw, Sacha Baron Cohen.

Actual winner: Daniel Kaluuya.  One of the funniest speeches of the entire night, even though I'm pretty sure his mom is going to beat his ass for bringing up her sex life on live TV.

Best Supporting Actress - 4/5 but Yuh-Jung Youn, 100%.

Actual winner:  Yuh-Jung Youn.  With the other funniest speech.  And the Brad Pitt thirst.

Best Animated Feature - Should be Wolfwalkers, but it'll probably be Soul.

Actual winner:  Soul.  Pixar remains the juggernaut.

Best Animated Short - 2/5, not a great sample size this year.  Probably go with If Anything Happens I Love You just for the topical nature.

Actual winner:  If Anything Happens I Love You.

Best Live Action Short - 4/5 Two Distant Strangers

Actual Winner: Two Distant Strangers.  And best dressed duo for their coordinating gold and black tuxedos!

Best Documentary Short - Hunger Ward though it could also go to Colette.

Actual winner:  Colette.  I should have known the Academy would never pass up a WWII film.

Best Documentary Feature - Collective

Actual winner:  My Octopus Teacher.  Literally the most inoffensive of the nominees.

Best Costume Design - Emma.

Actual winner: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Best Makeup and Hairstyling - If Hillbilly Elegy wins anything, it'll probably be this.  But Pinocchio had surprisingly great practical effects, so that's my vote.

Actual winner: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Best Production Design - 3/5 I think Mank.

Actual winner: Mank

Best Film Editing - 4/5 The Trial of the Chicago 7 but in a perfect world, Da 5 Bloods.

Actual winner: Sound of Metal

Best Sound - Sound of Metal

Actual winner: Sound of Metal

Best Original Score - Soul but I'm really hoping for Da 5 Bloods.

Actual winner: Soul.  And whoever did Jon Batiste's makeup should be commended.  His looked fresher than most of the female presenters.

Best Original Song - 4/5 God help me, Eurovision Song Contest

Actual winner: "Fight for You" from Judas and the Black Messiah.  Apparently, the song performances were aired before the broadcast, so I missed all of them.  But this was definitely the best dressed table.  That white suit with the ostrich trim?  Gorgeous.  That blue caped jumpsuit?  To die for.

Best Visual Effects - 4/5 I'm going to say The Midnight Sky because the Academy fucking loves outer space.

Actual winner: Tenet.  A surprise.  I thought for sure it would get shut out.

Best Adapted Screenplay - 4/5 One Night in Miami

Actual winner: The Father.  The one I didn't see, of course.

Best Original Screenplay - 4/5 Minari

Actual winner: Promising Young Woman.  Also kind of a surprise.

And they gave out two Jean Hersholt Humanitarian Awards, one to Tyler Perry (wholly deserved) and one to the Motion Picture Television Fund, accepted by its CEO, Bob Bietcher.  That one felt a little more gross.  I don't love the idea of giving an Oscar to a company, because it seems like a slippery slope to awarding corporations and that's a terrible idea.

Okay, so there's only a about an hour and a half left until the ceremony, so I'm going to go ahead and push this now.  I'll see you guys tomorrow with all the winners.

So I got 11 out of 22.  I'd have had probably the same luck picking them at random out of a hat.

The ceremony itself was kind of a bust, as well.  A lot of "telling" and very little "showing," no jokes, no host, no musical numbers, a DJ instead of an orchestra, and almost no real glamour.  They might as well have just let people present from their houses.